Tuesday, October 11, 2005


Rearrange these words - "Pigeons", "The", "Amongst" and "Cat"

Rifkind has withdrawn, and with his withdrawal had a dramatic effect on the first ballot. Previously it was assumed that since Rifkind was going to be knocked out the first ballot would be a "testing of the waters" for the four main candidates, after which manouvering for voting "against" certain candidates would happen. Now that's no longer a possiblity we're in the realm of possible tactical voting as early as the ballot a week today. Political Betting has some analysis of the situation, but the bottom line is that suddenly it's VERY uncertain as to how the first ballot will end up. Even if Foxy gets the Cornerstone vote, will he make it to round two? Can Clarke rely on the Rifkind first preferences to transfer to him? Will there be an anti-Cameron backlash?

A tactical vote in a first round closed ballot with a tiny electorate is VERY dangerous.
My bet?

Foxy will sneak through to the second round
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