Friday, October 07, 2005


Political Betting on DD's Problems...

"With David Cameron now the 1.36/1 firm favourite the focus in the Tory leadership battle moves to Westminster next week where the big issue will be whether the MPs, pictured here on the David Davis website, will stick with the Shadow Home Secretary.

Before the conference they had all agreed to allow their names and pictures to be associated with the campaign and if they don’t change their minds then Davis is almost guaranteed a place in the short-list of two that will go to the membership. But if enough of them slip away to Clarke, Cameron or Fox then the first round results might look very different.

It is here that the legendary Derek Conway comes in. He built a fearsome reputation as a whip for the final three years of the 1992-1997 Tory government stopping a seepage of votes following the Maastricht treaty. Now his style of “charm” is at the disposal of David Davis and all those on the list are going to be under enormous pressure to stick by their man. Their phones are not going to stop ringing until the first ballot is over.

Following Davis’s “lacklustre” conference performance - a verdict first made here within an hour of the speech and since used everywhere - it’s been suggested that some of his supporters only signed up because they thought he was a certainty. Now Davis is second in the betting will Conway still be able to convince them that it is in their long-term political interests to stay on board?"

Read it all

It could mean Davis does a Portillo. He could poll 64 votes in the first round and then not get any more.
I'm starting to think this is a distinct possibility. Now that Cameron is looking more certain for being through, DD backers might start thinking of who (if not DD) could stop him.
The thing that may harm Cameron is Clarke. They're both appealing for the same vote.
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