Monday, October 03, 2005


Foxy looking dangerous..

At least according to the Guardian...

When one starts doing the math for second place (given that Davis has all but wrapped up his place in the membership's ballot), Foxy is beginning to look like a serious bet. Rifkind is very likely to be knocked out on the first ballot, and then where the Clarke / Cameron / Fox race will go is the big question. You might think that Rifkind's backers would go their One Nation way to Clarke, but grandees like a good solid man, and Fox may just be their cup of tea.

Also not to be discounted is that some of the Davis backers may consider their candidate's position secure enough to use their "excess" vote to defeat Clarke. This kind of tactical voting destroyed Portillo last time round. If I were a Davis man I'd be worried about a Davis / Clarke run-off, and Cameron is just too Eton to get the "SAS man on the street" vote that's following the front-runner, so the tactically minded (yes, they do exist in the Tory party - it's a shock I know) may pop a few votes the way of Foxy.

Dr Fox should be able to get thirty or so votes relatively easily. I think the new intake should be especially susceptible to his charms.

Provided Cornerstone doesn't go mad and field a doomed Leigh or Ancram candidacy, I'd imagine they'd fall behind the Doctor. Davis is insufficiently eurosceptic (i.e. not at all), while Cameron is about as eurosceptic as Clarke!

If they do, then Dr Fox could easily come second in the first round.
Don't get us all excited!!!

Actually, I think Foxy's vote count on the first ballot is going to be a shock to everybody who has discounted him. Hadn't thought about the Cornerstone angle, but yes, as long as Leigh or Ancram don't waste time, Foxy's on his way. And, to be fair, if Cornerstone campaign on a Euro-sceptic platform, that can only boost Foxy's similar position when the Leigh / Ancram vote moves onto it's second preference.
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