Tuesday, October 04, 2005

 

Ancram or Fox?

Recent discussion on politicalbetting.com

  1. Yeah, but how many MPs are “Cornerstone"? 25? Could be enough to get Ancram going (and in doing so totally throw open the race for second place).

    Comment by Fox Blogger — 4/10/2005 @ 1:20 pm

  2. Don’t you think quite a few of the Cornerstoners will see your man as the best they can get, FB, rather than risk it on Ancram? Or do you think he is best off distancing himself from them?

    Comment by book value — 4/10/2005 @ 1:23 pm

  3. It’s a good question. I think Foxy is as good as the Cornerstoners are going to get in the current field, and if all 25 of them came out and backed him that would utterly change the dynamic of the contest (he’d be streets ahead of Cameron and possibly even Clarke). However, an Ancram leadership bid may be more to do with getting the specific Cornerstone agenda into the arena, rather than wanting to have Ancram as leader (because, to be honest, no-one’s going to vote him as leader when push comes to shove).

    The worry is that Ancram runs, pulls votes from Foxy (knocking him out) and then, being Ancram, fails to have impact beyond the 1st / 2nd ballot. That would mean that the social conservative camp would end up with nobody. The best thing for Cornerstone to do, if they really want to be heard, is to swallow their pride on the bits of Foxy they don’t like, and back him to the max. Foxy vs Ancram - Foxy wins any day (and that’s not just because I’m backing him - let’s be realistic).

    Whatchathink?

    Comment by Fox Blogger — 4/10/2005 @ 1:31 pm

  4. Your analysis seems sensible to me. I don’t expect the Cornerstone Group to take advice from me, but I think that backing Fox is the most sensible course for them.

    Comment by book value — 4/10/2005 @ 1:33 pm

  5. Of course it’s sensible - We’re foxy!!!!

    Comment by Fox Blogger — 4/10/2005 @ 1:34 pm


Comments:
An Ancram or Leigh candidacy would never attract much support beyond the undeclared Cornerstone memebers. It could - as you note - have the side effect of knocking out the good Doctor by mistake.

So most of Cornerstone will back Dr Fox - unless they're mad, of course.

Of their number, Iain Lidell-Grainger has already declared for Davis and Desmond Swayne has gone for Fox. If they do go as a bloc, I'd expect them to follow Swayne's choice. After all, he's not the only Cornerstone member who has a shared history with Dr Fox in the Howard '97 campaign team.

Well, we'll know tomorrow. That's when Michael Ancram is supposed to declare his intentions. Maybe it will be an endorsement rather than a new candidate...
 
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